USA technology company Foursquare claims,  that U.S. tourism is in dramatic decline, losing 16 percent market share of international tourist arrivals from November 2016 to March 2017.

Foursquare is a USA technology company that uses location intelligence to build meaningful consumer experiences and business solutions.

The decline, according to a Foursquare analysis, actually began in October — when it looked like Hillary Clinton would be the next president and not Donald Trump — as U.S. market share in international tourism dipped 6 percent year over year that month.

Data show that during this time, other countries’ share of international tourism has been increasing as the U.S.’ has declined.

Official U.S. government data on international tourist arrivals hasn’t been updated since August 2016. But Foursquare said its own data show foreign visitation has thinned out so far this year before and after President Donald Trump took office in January.

Foursquare earlier found that visits to U.S Trump-branded properties were down last year.

But Skift Daily, US News mail for tourism, are not ready to take Foursquare’s analysis at face value. Foursquare’s data contradicts reporting from most booking sites, hotels, travel associations and city and state destinations in the U.S. Although many brands haven’t reported any negative impact so far in overseas visitors, they are also worried.

Official government data for January, February and March show international visitor spending in the U.S. is at a record high,  although these numbers data don’t include retail spending, which Foursquare says is likewise under pressure.

Some booking sites such as Kayak, Expedia and Hopper have said bookings from some markets such as the Middle East have been down for the past few months compared with a year ago.

Visit Florida, for example, estimates that the state’s international arrivals were down 2.6 percent overall for 2016. California’s overseas arrivals were up 2.2 percent year-to-date as of August 2016 (the most recent month data is available) but its European arrivals were down -2.7 percent for the same period and its Mexican arrivals declined 2.1 percent.

Foursquare points out that California, and in particular Los Angeles and San Diego, was most impacted by the decrease in international travelers.  Last month, Discover Los Angeles launched its  “Everyone is Welcome” marketing campaign to help reinforce its message that the city welcomes international travelers.

Strong dollar

A strong U.S. dollar, coupled with the U.S. political climate, all play into factors impacting U.S. tourism.

International travelers make up 10.7 percent of all visits to leisure locations that Foursquare tracks.

“This means that the drop in international tourism to the U.S. is resulting in an opportunity cost of about 1.2 percent in total visits to U.S. shops, restaurants, attractions and the like,”  the company wrote in a blog post.

“And it’s a fair bet that international shoppers spend more than the average domestic shopper.

Official U.S. government data for full 2016 won’t be available for several months — and also won’t capture the U.S. tourism climate so far in 2017.

Travel data firm ForwardKeys, however, found that bookings for U.S.’ international arrivals were down one percent for January to April 2017 and aleady down four percent year-over-year for May to August 2017 as of May 1.

On hold The travel bans are on hold for now, but the U.S.´s travel and hospitality industries could be facing a rough future ahead.

A new report from the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) projects a loss of over $1.3 billion in overall travel-related expenditures in the United States this year, including hotels, food, rental cars and shopping expenses that inbound travelers would have spent.

That includes $250 million lost in spending from inbound business travelers from Europe and the Middle East.

Using first-quarter ticketing data from the Airlines Reporting Corp. (ARC), publicly available travel data and GBTA’s economic research and models, GBTA developed an ‘uncertainty forecast’ for 2017 showing the impact this mounting geopolitical uncertainty is having on the economy.

Forecasts In an earlier survey of GBTA’s European members, 45 percent indicated their company will be less willing to plan future meetings and events in the United States due to executive orders on travel. The loss of this inbound traffic could have a dramatic effect. Overall, the U.S. GDP is poised to take a nearly $300-million hit. More than 4,200 jobs could be lost along with $175 million in wages and $70 million in tax collections.

Europe, meanwhile is forecast to lose over $250 million in air fare spending and the Middle East will lose over $80 million in air fare.