The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects overall traveller numbers to surpass pre-Covid-19 levels by 2024.

It projects four billion, counting multi-sector connecting trips as one passenger.

The overall picture presented in its latest long-term forecast update is unchanged despite the emergence of the Omicron variant.

“The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from Covid-19 was not changed by the Omicron variant. People want to travel and when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

The February update to the long-term forecast showed in 2021, overall traveller numbers were 47% of 2019 levels while international traveller numbers were just 27% of 2019 levels.

Domestic traveller numbers were 61% of 2019 levels, which is expected to improve to 93% this year.

“The biggest and most immediate drivers of passenger numbers are the restrictions that governments place on travel. Fortunately, more governments have understood that travel restrictions have little to no long-term impact on the spread of a virus,” said Walsh.

IATA reiterated its call for the removal of all travel barriers for those fully vaccinated and pre-departure antigen testing for quarantine-free travel for non-vaccinated travellers

“In general, we are moving in the right direction, but there are some concerns. Asia-Pacific is the laggard of the recovery. While Australia and New Zealand have announced measures to reconnect with the world, China is showing no signs of relaxing its zero-Covid strategy. The resulting localised lock-downs in its domestic market are depressing global passenger numbers even as other major markets like the US are largely back to normal,” said Walsh.