According to findings from CWT and the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), price increases will begin to diminish in the coming year.
“The risks and ambiguity have increased over the past few months–not least the threat of escalating trade wars, the impact of Brexit, possible oil supply shocks, and the growing likelihood of recession,” said Kurt Ekert, CWT’s president and CEO. “This forecast will help travel buyers make the right decisions in an increasingly challenging environment.”
The 2020 Global Travel Forecast uses data generated by CWT Solutions Group, to give an early look at the trends and developments that will shape the business travel industry in the year ahead.
Key findings released show that air prices will increase by 1.2 percent, hotel rates 1.3 percent and rental car 1 percent.
A high level of uncertainty is affecting the forecast.
“Technological advancements and an increasingly volatile economic and political landscape across the globe have changed the way today’s travel buyers need to do their jobs,” said Scott Solombrino, GBTA COO and Executive Director. “This annual forecast provides insights into the key drivers forcing these shifting priorities and gives a road map for travel buyers looking to plan their 2020 travel programs.”
GDP growth is expected to increase 3.6 percent compared to 3.3 percent this year and a 1.7 percent growth rate is forecast for the world’s major economies.
The U.S. economy may be thriving but growing uncertainty due to tariffs and trade wars are leading to slowing. GDP growth is set to slow to 2.1 percent in 2019 and slow further in 2020 and 2021, to 2 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively in North America.
Hotel and flight prices are expected to rise 2.3 percent while ground transportation remains fairly stable.
In Europe, flights prices in Eastern Europe dip by .2 percent, according to the forecast and, in Western Europe, increases will be small at just .5 percent.
Hotels will also see slowing growth with rates increasing just .7 percent. Ground travel will also remain stable. In Eastern Europe the forecast is expected to be 1.5 percent and .5 percent in Western Europe.
The Middle East and Africa forecast shows flights increasing by 2.2 percent; hotel rates growing by 2.5 percent; and ground transport remaining stable at .5 percent.
The Asia Pacific region’s slowing economic expansion is dampening growth for hotels, airlines and ground transportation. Still, according to the forecast, the region remains the most dynamic, with steady GDP growth, benign inflation, and a sense of optimism.
Contributing to the optimistic outlook is the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo as well as the Rugby World Cup, which will also take place in Japan.